T&S Asset Management

Philippine inflation eases to 6.1% in August, still well above target

Published Data as of PhilippinesMacro & households

Key points

Facts

Headline: CPI inflation was 6.1% year on year in August 2026 (down from 6.2% in July; fourth consecutive monthly slowdown). The January–August average was 5.2%. Source: Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) release as reported by GMA News on 4 September. 1

Components: food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation was 4.6% (down from 5.2% in July); housing, water, electricity, gas and fuels was 7.9% (down from 8.2% in July). Same source.

Monetary policy: on 18 June 2026 Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) raised the overnight reverse repurchase rate to 4.75% (raised by 25 bp on 18 June 2026) and raised its 2026 average inflation forecast to 6.4% (raised from 6.3%), with 4.5% for 2027. Source: Philippine News Agency (PNA). Later press coverage puts the policy rate at 5.0% (Inquirer, 9 September). 2

Analysis

Regionally, Philippine inflation of 6.1% is roughly double Indonesia's 3.19% (August, BPS) and well above Malaysia's 1.8% January–July average (BNM). The BSP governor has cited elevated oil and fertiliser prices and broadening second-round effects, pointing to supply-driven inflation. Even as the rate of increase slows, the price level keeps rising cumulatively, so pressure on household real incomes persists.

Implications

ExecutivesRising essential costs weigh most on lower-income households; living-cost assumptions in underwriting should be raised.
InvestorsWith the policy rate around 5.0%, lenders' funding costs and margins are likely to stay under pressure for now.
OperatorsCollection efficiency and early-arrears handling are the main levers on profitability in this phase.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

If the slowdown continues, BSP could stop tightening before year-end. Some expect faster disinflation via lower oil and food prices if the Middle East situation calms. The PSA primary release could not be retrieved; figures rely on GMA's report.

Figures: see definitions

  1. Headline CPI inflation (PSA): 6.1% (down from 6.2% in July; fourth consecutive monthly slowdown). Year-on-year change in the consumer price index. Philippines, national. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: GMA News: Inflation slows down for fourth straight month at 6.1% in August
  2. BSP policy rate (as reported): 5.0% (reported by the Inquirer; date of the decision taking it to this level unverified). BSP overnight reverse repurchase rate as cited in press coverage. Philippines, national. Basis date: 9 Sep 2026. Source: Inquirer: Bad loans up amid continuing consumer strain (2026-09-09)

Sources

  1. Philippine News Agency: BSP hikes policy rates by another 25 basis points (2026-06-18)primary
  2. GMA News: Inflation slows down for fourth straight month at 6.1% in August
  3. Inquirer: Bad loans up amid continuing consumer strain

Reports are for information only and are not investment advice. Methodology: sources, verification and definitions