ADB cuts Myanmar's FY2026 growth forecast and keeps inflation forecast high

Published 28 Sep 2026Data as of 23 Sep 2026MyanmarMacro & households

Correction: Added that the inflation forecast was unchanged. Removed the unverified statement about ADB suspending lending (from February 2021).

FY2026 (April–March) growth forecast cut to 2.2% (revised down from 2.4% (July 2026)); FY2027 at 2.7%
Inflation forecasts of 24.0% for FY2026 and 16.0% for FY2027, both unchanged from July
Higher fuel prices, logistics disruption, input shortages and weak manufacturing drove the downgrade

Facts

Growth: in its Asian Development Outlook September 2026, published on 23 September 2026, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) cut its FY2026 (April 2026–March 2027) real GDP growth forecast for Myanmar to 2.2% ¹ (revised down from 2.4% (July 2026)). The FY2027 forecast was kept at 2.7%. Sources: ADB ADO September 2026, Southeast Asia chapter (2026-09-23); JETRO (2026-09-24).

Prices: consumer inflation is forecast at 24.0% ² for FY2026 and 16.0% for FY2027, both unchanged from July 2026. Source: JETRO (2026-09-24, citing ADB).

Reasons: higher fuel prices and logistics disruption linked to the Middle East, weak demand, input shortages due to import restrictions, and stagnating manufacturing due to rising production costs. Foreign-currency shortages and prolonged uncertainty were cited as downside risks. Source: as above.

Analysis

By comparison, Myanmar's growth forecast of 2.2% is similar to Thailand's 2.0%, but its inflation forecast of 24.0% far exceeds Thailand's 2.5% and Vietnam's 4.3%; ADB notes that prices are especially high in Myanmar and Laos. With real growth nearly stagnant and prices rising sharply, rising nominal incomes are unlikely to improve real repayment capacity.

Over time, the August manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory at 50.3 (1 September), yet ADB cites stagnating manufacturing as a reason for the downgrade; a one-month improvement coexists with a weaker annual outlook.

Implications

ExecutivesLenders should set repayment caps in line with actual incomes, on the assumption that fixed instalments compete with food and fuel spending.

InvestorsWith inflation forecast at 24.0% and foreign-currency shortages, valuations should focus on the real value of local-currency assets and funding maturity mismatches.

OperatorsUnder high inflation, the real value of collateral and deposits also fluctuates, so shorter loan tenors are worth considering.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

Myanmar's statistics have reliability limits, and ADB's forecasts carry large uncertainty. The inflation forecast is unchanged, so ADB's price outlook has not deteriorated further since July. ADB also expects slight improvement in FY2027 (growth 2.7%, inflation 16.0%).

Figures: see definitions

ADB real GDP growth forecast, FY2026: 2.2% (revised down from 2.4% (July 2026))
Fiscal year April 2026–March 2027.
. ADB Asian Development Outlook September 2026 forecast. Whole economy. Basis date: 23 Sep 2026. Source: ADB: Developing Southeast Asia, Asian Development Outlook September 2026 (2026-09-23)
ADB consumer inflation forecast, FY2026: 24.0% (unchanged from July 2026)
Figure taken from JETRO, not extracted directly from the ADB PDF.
. ADB ADO September 2026 forecast of CPI inflation, fiscal year April 2026–March 2027 (a forecast, not an outturn). Consumer prices. Basis date: 23 Sep 2026. Source: JETRO Biz News: ADB lowers Myanmar FY2026 growth forecast (2026-09-24)

Sources

Reports are for information only and are not investment advice. Methodology: sources, verification and definitions