ADB cuts Brunei's 2026 growth forecast to 1.2%

Published 28 Sep 2026Data as of 23 Sep 2026BruneiMacro & households

Correction: The prior forecast is identified as the July edition.

On 23 September ADB lowered Brunei's 2026 growth forecast to 1.2% (cut from 1.8% in the July outlook).
Higher hydrocarbon output does not fully offset weakness in the non-oil sector; 2027 growth is forecast at 1.9%.
The forecast is far below Southeast Asia's 4.7% and among the lowest in the region.

Facts

In the Southeast Asia chapter of the Asian Development Outlook September 2026, published on 23 September 2026, ADB lowered Brunei's 2026 real GDP growth forecast to 1.2% (cut from 1.8% in the July outlook). It forecasts 1.9% for 2027 (source: ADB). ¹ ADB said increased hydrocarbon (oil and gas) production does not fully offset weakness in the non-oil sector (source: ADB).

In the same report, the 2026 forecast for Southeast Asia is 4.7% (raised from 4.6% in the July outlook), for Timor-Leste 4.0% (raised from 3.8% in the July outlook) and for Cambodia 3.9% (cut from 4.1% in the July outlook) (source: ADB).

Analysis

Regionally, Brunei's 1.2% is about a quarter of the Southeast Asian average of 4.7%, and the downgrade is large. Growth in the resource sector alongside a weak non-oil sector indicates limited diversification. Household effects are likely to diverge between workers in oil and gas or the public sector and those in the private non-oil sector.

Implications

ExecutivesAny credit expansion in Brunei should proceed cautiously while monitoring private non-oil employment.

InvestorsLow growth and a small market suggest limited room for consumer finance growth.

OperatorsTreat the borrower's employer sector (resources or public sector versus private) as an explicit underwriting variable.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

The forecast depends heavily on oil and gas output and prices and could surprise on the upside. The ADB report does not address household debt or arrears in Brunei, so the effect of slower growth on credit quality is not confirmed.

Figures: see definitions

ADB GDP growth forecast, 2026: 1.2% (cut from 1.8% in the July outlook). ADB Asian Development Outlook forecast of real GDP growth. Brunei Darussalam. Basis date: 23 Sep 2026. Source: ADB: Asian Development Outlook September 2026 - Developing Southeast Asia

Sources

Reports are for information only and are not investment advice. Methodology: sources, verification and definitions