Cambodia's NPL ratio keeps rising as a remittance slump strains household cash flow

Facts

According to the National Bank of Cambodia (NBC) Annual Report 2025, published on 23 January 2026 (its 2025 figures are NBC estimates based on actual data up to November 2025), loans of banks and financial institutions reached about USD 63bn at end-2025 (+4.1% y/y) ¹, deposits about USD 66bn (+14.7% y/y), and the NPL ratio 8.9% (up from 7.4% at end-2024) ². The NBC semi-annual report (published 28 July 2026, reported by Xinhua) puts loans at USD 64.2bn at end-June 2026 (+4.6% y/y) and the NPL ratio at 9.6% (up from 8.4% at end-June 2025).

The NBC Financial Stability Review 2025 (FSR, published 28 March 2026) provides a breakdown. The NPL ratio of deposit-taking institutions (DTIs) was 8.3% (up from 7.1% in 2024) and the net NPL ratio after provisions 2.7% (down from 3.0% in 2024). For non-deposit-taking institutions (NDTIs, mainly MFIs that do not take deposits) the ratio was 13.5% (down from 14.3% in 2024) ³. Credit-to-GDP stood at 127.8%.

Credit Bureau Cambodia (CBC) data, reported by Cambodianess on 30 March 2026, show 5.13 million borrowers at end-2025 (+1.78% y/y) and outstanding credit of about USD 62bn (+5.3% from USD 59bn at end-2024). The 90+ DPD ratio was 6.46% (up from 6.03% at end-2024) ⁴. CBC aggregates credit reported by its members, whereas NBC aggregates reports from supervised institutions, so coverage differs.

Remittance figures differ by source. The FSR 2025 puts 2025 remittance inflows at USD 2.1bn (−23.6% y/y) ⁵; inflows from Thailand, 77.3% of the total, changed −28.4% y/y. Ministry of Labour and Vocational Training estimates, reported by Cambodianess on 31 March 2026, show remittances from workers abroad falling from USD 2.95bn in 2024 to USD 1.86bn in 2025 (−37%) ⁶.

Restructured-loan figures vary widely by source. The NBC Annual Report 2025 puts restructured loans at USD 5.3bn, equal to 8.3% of total loans (up from 3% in 2024), covering 252,868 customers; it describes them as loans restructured under NBC forbearance measures for customers facing temporary financial difficulties ⁷. CBC data, reported by Cambodianess, show nearly 400,000 accounts and about USD 402m restructured by end-2025 (+9% y/y) ⁸. The Cambodia Microfinance Association (CMA) said on 16 January 2026 that its members restructured USD 500m of loans for displaced households between mid- and end-2025.

The same Cambodianess report says more than 900,000 migrant workers returned from Thailand in July–December 2025, an estimate based on government statements. The government said about 650,000 of them had found work as of 24 March 2026.

Analysis

The NPL ratio has risen at every published reading: 7.4% at end-2024, 8.4% in June 2025, 8.9% at end-2025 and 9.6% in June 2026. This is a continuing deterioration, not a one-off turning point.

The FSR 2025 identifies two transmission channels from the border conflict with Thailand (from May 2025): an oversupply of domestic labour as migrants return, and lower remittances. In remittance-dependent households, cash flow can weaken even where a family member earns a salary, eroding capacity to repay from wages. This is T&S's inference; no published data separate arrears among salaried borrowers.

The gap between restructured-loan figures likely reflects three definitional differences. First, stock versus flow: the NBC's USD 5.3bn is expressed as a share of total loans and reads as an end-year outstanding balance (the NBC Annual Report 2025 describes it as forbearance for customers facing temporary financial difficulties, without separating border-conflict cases), whereas CBC's about USD 402m and CMA's USD 500m are closer in size to new restructurings in response to the 2025 border conflict. CBC's figure implies about USD 1,000 per account against about USD 21,000 per customer for NBC (T&S calculation), a very different profile. Second, institutional coverage: NBC covers supervised banks and financial institutions, CBC its reporting members and CMA its association members. Third, the definition and reporting of restructuring may differ between credit-bureau records and supervisory classification. During the pandemic, in H1 2021, NBC-basis restructurings totalled USD 5.5bn for about 367,000 borrowers (Phnom Penh Post, 27 July 2021), so the end-2025 stock may include residual balances from that period. None of these definitions has been confirmed in primary documents; this is T&S's interpretation. The KPI table uses the NBC ratio of 8.3% because it is expressed against total loans.

The NDTI NPL ratio of 13.5% is well above the DTI ratio of 8.3%: asset quality is weakest in the segment closest to small and rural borrowers.

Implications

Counterpoints and uncertainties

NBC and labour-ministry remittance figures differ by about USD 240m, and the rate of decline (−23.6% or −37%) depends on methodology; the underlying definitions (balance-of-payments receipts versus estimated worker remittances) are unconfirmed. The government says about 650,000 returnees have found work, which could ease household stress. The DTI net NPL ratio fell to 2.7% (down from 3.0% in 2024), suggesting provisions limit the loss impact. No data directly show spillover to salaried borrowers' arrears. The stock/flow reading of restructured loans is T&S's interpretation and has not been confirmed against NBC or CBC source documents.